Home | The Recon Report

The state of your money, your freedom, and the systems you depend on.

Four minutes. Monday through Friday. The format is fixed so nothing gets lost.

Learn more about the format →

Free. Four minutes a day. Unsubscribe anytime

October 18: His Law Meets the Deal He Just Made.

Oct 12, 2026

•

5 min read

October 18: His Law Meets the Deal He Just Made.

Diesel deal. Ceasefire claim. Graham Act waiver. Three moves, one timetable. Whether the law has teeth is the question this week answers.

Two Supply Shocks. One Weekend. Brent at $104.

Oct 11, 2026

•

5 min read

Two Supply Shocks. One Weekend. Brent at $104.

Gulf production is 63% offline. Hormuz attacks just hit their weekly record. Refinery damage reports start Monday — and those determine whether this is a days-long disruption or a weeks-long one.

No strikes before Nov. 3. The bond market isn’t waiting.

Oct 10, 2026

•

8 min read

No strikes before Nov. 3. The bond market isn’t waiting.

The 10-year just touched its highest level since 2002, and Washington’s answer to Tehran comes with an election date attached.

What Brent at $104 Still Isn't Pricing In.

Oct 9, 2026

•

4 min read

What Brent at $104 Still Isn't Pricing In.

The FOMC meets October 27. A potential Iran strike lands on the Fed's desk one week before the election. No model runs all three variables at once.

Your Bank's Unrealized Losses Grew Again This Week.

Oct 8, 2026

•

5 min read

Your Bank's Unrealized Losses Grew Again This Week.

Markets price October hike odds at 18%. Russia is stockpiling gold. The Graham Act has ten days and no enforcement plan.

Eight Tankers Hit. Third Carrier En Route. Nov 4.

Oct 6, 2026

•

5 min read

Eight Tankers Hit. Third Carrier En Route. Nov 4.

Vance's Camp David session had the same roster as the one convened days before the last airstrikes on Iran.

Three Carriers in Theater. The Pause Is Priced In.

Oct 5, 2026

•

5 min read

Three Carriers in Theater. The Pause Is Priced In.

The Roosevelt arrives late October — overlapping with midterms and Trump's stated window. Oil at $102 has not priced what follows when the pause ends.

Iraq's Militias Didn't Disarm in 2011. They Won't Now.

Oct 4, 2026

•

5 min read

Iraq's Militias Didn't Disarm in 2011. They Won't Now.

Baghdad told Washington it was confident in a June 2027 deadline. Kata'ib Hezbollah rejected it the same day. The corridor from Tehran to Beirut just became permanent.

The edge is information.

Markets reward those who see first. Join investors who understand the move before they make it.

Free. Four minutes a day. Unsubscribe anytime

October 18: His Law Meets the Deal He Just Made.

Two Supply Shocks. One Weekend. Brent at $104.

No strikes before Nov. 3. The bond market isn’t waiting.

What Brent at $104 Still Isn't Pricing In.

Your Bank's Unrealized Losses Grew Again This Week.

Eight Tankers Hit. Third Carrier En Route. Nov 4.

Three Carriers in Theater. The Pause Is Priced In.

Iraq's Militias Didn't Disarm in 2011. They Won't Now.

The edge is information.

Quick Links