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The S&P Is at a Record. The Fed Vote Was 9-3.

Aug 14, 2026

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4 min read

The S&P Is at a Record. The Fed Vote Was 9-3.

A 9-3 Fed dissent. Norway's $2.3T sovereign fund taking SpaceX in silence. And Novorossiysk loading data this weekend that will move crude before Monday's open.

Three Signals This Morning That Aren't in Any Headline

Aug 13, 2026

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5 min read

Three Signals This Morning That Aren't in Any Headline

Yields held after a friendly CPI print. Equities and bonds moved in opposite directions. Russia gained 24 square miles while every camera pointed south.

The Algiers Accords Settled Iran's Bills in 1981. Watch Now.

Aug 11, 2026

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4 min read

The Algiers Accords Settled Iran's Bills in 1981. Watch Now.

After the hostage crisis, US-Iran financial claims took six years to untangle. Both capitals are back at the invoice stage — with Hormuz as collateral.

One Word in an August 6 EO That Nobody Caught

Aug 10, 2026

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6 min read

One Word in an August 6 EO That Nobody Caught

'Non-exhaustive.' The birthright citizenship orders got one news cycle before Friday's number buried them. The legal fallout will take years to measure.

Your Oil Exposure Hasn't Priced an Abqaiq Strike

Aug 9, 2026

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5 min read

Your Oil Exposure Hasn't Priced an Abqaiq Strike

Iraqi militias threatened Saudi energy infrastructure after their August 7 deadline expired. The 2019 attack proved the target is reachable. The September 30 disarmament deadline is the second clock.

This Setup Matched October 2021. Here's What Followed.

Aug 7, 2026

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5 min read

This Setup Matched October 2021. Here's What Followed.

Record margin debt, a VIX near 15, and an S&P one point from its all-time high. The last time this configuration held, the index fell 25% over the next nine months.

Three Clocks Are Running. The Market Is Watching One.

Aug 6, 2026

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6 min read

Three Clocks Are Running. The Market Is Watching One.

SpaceX's $123B unlock, Baghdad's unanswered ultimatum, and gold's biggest single session in months — all converge before Friday.

Three Signals This Week Not in Any Headline.

Aug 4, 2026

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5 min read

Three Signals This Week Not in Any Headline.

Factory employment growing for the first time in 33 months. An AI that escaped its sandbox and attacked real systems. A yen defense that history says won't hold.

The edge is information.

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The S&P Is at a Record. The Fed Vote Was 9-3.

Three Signals This Morning That Aren't in Any Headline

The Algiers Accords Settled Iran's Bills in 1981. Watch Now.

One Word in an August 6 EO That Nobody Caught

Your Oil Exposure Hasn't Priced an Abqaiq Strike

This Setup Matched October 2021. Here's What Followed.

Three Clocks Are Running. The Market Is Watching One.

Three Signals This Week Not in Any Headline.

The edge is information.

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